Tshisekedi is passing the point of no return

The events in the Kivu’s passed from a fast-flowing river into a rapid with deep waterfalls and dangerous currents. And it might flood a whole region and cause a lot of damage. Nobody had thought that Kinshasa’s performance on the battle field would have been so predictable and so weak, not after it was announced that the FARDC was being equipped with new weapons and planes, that a group of several hundreds of foreign mercenaries would back up its military operations and that all the local militia’s in this region were equipped with new weapons and its leaders bribed with a lot of cash to convince their recruits to be used as cannon fodder in frontal attacks that would destroy the M23.  To the astonishment of many this didn’t happen; as we speak the FARDC coalition is pinned down in and around Goma and a couple of faraway positions nearby Nyanzale and Rwindi, Tshisekedi’s ministers are crying mea culpa in the offices of foreign ambassadors in Kinshasa who, by now, all start to understand that they are the ones to blame themselves because they were the ones who broke the fragile peace agreements that were concluded in Luanda and in Nairobi.

Bigger game

Many foreign observants and diplomats for whom the conflict in the east of the DRC was always one of “Rwanda supporting the M23 and Tshisekedi falling back on criminal mayi mayi groups and extremist Hutu militias” are now beginning to understand that they over simplified this conflict, that it is part of a bigger game that is set up to cover the kleptocracy of the current Congolese government  and to allow it to stick on to power. They had already allowed the Congolese political establishment to set up a government that was not even democratically elected, after the last elections. By allowing the narrative of the Congolese government that Rwanda and the M23 were the only devils that are responsible for the sinking of this Congolese vessel they even succeeded in giving Kinshasa more diplomatic breathing space. But that is getting quite narrow now:  Tshisekedi’s stubbornness not to engage in peace talks, the fact that he is running out of tricks, lies and dombolo tunes and moves to justify his acts and decisions, the fact that his army was out maneuvered by a ten times less stronger M23 force  and the fact that he is considered by many as crazy enough to start a regional war opened the eyes of many who were tolerant towards his policy. “We frowned our eyes when Tshisekedi summoned the top brass FARDC military to promise them that more serious ‘businesses’ would materialize themselves in the form of a new offensive,” tells us a European diplomat. “He thereby clearly underlined his wish to breach the cease fire. The FARDC was also heavily involved in the wazalendo theatrics and their logistical support. Everybody knows that those wazalendo are composed of criminal groups and that some of them are even internationally labeled as terrorists.”  

To cut this short: Tshisekedi & co are becoming a liability for certain superpowers who need a guaranteed quantity of Congolese minerals and other resources.  They are also weary of the fact that Kinshasa might turn its eyes towards Beijing or Moscow for support.  Tshisekedi’s swan song is also a vivid example that the so called ‘democratic umbrella and model” that is provided by institutions or countries such as the EU, Washington, Brussels and Paris is becoming difficult to justify. The democratic nature of his government and his election were already questionable to start with. Instead of being grateful for this monkey business deal and act as an obedient servant for those countries he is bullying political opponents, using criminal gangs and genocide perpetrators to do his fighting and he is pretending that his regular army is not directly involved. All this while his shadow and its footprints are all over the place and becoming very visible. This is becoming too much of an embarrassment for his foreign promoters.  

Situation

The situation in and around Goma is still foggy and confusing; we have been following up on these events very closely, we posted these updates on Twitter and these messages were viewed by thousands of people. But the situation now is even more critical as it was before:

·         Goma is de facto surrounded by the M23 that has now the possibility to cut off the only road that remains open between the city and Bukavu. Today some regular passenger flights were already delayed or cancelled out of fear that the airport might be shelled.   Only a couple of pockets of FARDC presence in Masisi and the Rutshuru regions remain active: on the axe between Kitshanga and Nyanzale and up north above Mabenga and towards Rwindi. The FDLR evacuated their strongholds in “Domaine” and around Kishishe. They also remain present at the border with Uganda near Ishasha. While they are bagging Goma the M23 will probably leave the road open to Bukavu as they will probably follow the Impi strategy.

·         We talked to several of our sources in Goma who are telling us that the seriousness of this situation has not impregnated yet into the minds of the locals. “It’s still business as usual and most of the locals still believe firmly in the narrative of the local and the national governments that the FARDC, the mercenaries and their allies have the situation under control. Local and national media play a very important role in this attitude,” told us one contact. “Once they’ll start to see that the situation is desperate this ticking time bomb might explode: the FARDC might start looting before they flee, etc.”

The humanitarian situation is worsening by the day; local and international NGOs cannot reach all the people in need anymore, cholera might break out, etc.  The local security forces are also blocking those who want to return to their home villages.

As the war in the east of the country is not covered at all by foreign and independent media and the main source of information is now local media and platforms such as Twitter, the population is badly informed about the situation. The authorities have those local media in their pockets, others do not risk exposing them out of fear to be arrested or killed.

·         We also received confirmation that the mercenary contingent in Goma was looking for a way out of this impasse as they were losing their faith in a further collaboration with the FARDC. “It is even possible that this is one of the reasons why Kinshasa put the wagon in front of the oxen and launched a banzai attack against the M23 positions in Kibumba because they wanted to confront those mercenaries with the contracts they signed,” told us a foreign military analyst in Kinshasa.  

Many proxy FARDC forces got their asses kicked in Tongo, Kitshanga and in Bwiza in neatly set up M23 kill boxes. Some of them returned to the Nyiragongo area where they started fighting amongst themselves. Their motivation to fight was very low and this might have been one of the last chances for the FARDC to use them as cannon fodder before they orientated their anger on themselves. The fact that the FARDC – on purpose or not – shelled a position of the Kenyan EAC contingent and killed one of their soldiers is another black spot on the already badly tarnished shield of the Congolese government. An official in Kenya admitted that the shell was launched by the FARDC and a couple of other sources in Goma confirmed this.

·         The possibility that the M23 will try to enter Goma is not likely: they understand that this would be a political error and purely military they do even not have to do this; the city might implode on its own or might fall from the tree like a ripe apple. Occupying Goma would also mean that the M23 would have to bring in troops that are much needed elsewhere.

·         Tshisekedi’s akazu (inner circle) panicked and organized press- and diplomatic meetings in Kinshasa with satellite or drone pictures of RDF soldiers entering Congo. Three ministers were seen convincing the American ambassador that Rwanda was the main devil behind this disaster and the Congolese minister of foreign affairs came out with a statement that Congo would react very hard and decisively if one bullet would be fired at Goma. The pictures were fuzzy and could have been taken by a drone that was flying at the other side of the border.   But this is not all, Kinshasa might have other tricks in its sleeve to divert the responsibility of their acts into their advantage.

·         We cannot look into the future but nearly all the observers, diplomats and people who are following up on the situation in the Kivu’s are convinced that Tshisekedi might try to provoke Rwanda into an open war with the DRC by shelling or attacking RDF positions inside Rwanda or even shell civilian targets over the border.  “There are several factors that could push the Congolese government into a mad decision like that,” tells us a Kinshasa based diplomat. “He’s running out of options, his propaganda people are starting to fail to convince the outside world that the Tutsi community wants to balkanize the country, he was defeated on the battlefield and more and more of his allies are getting fed up with his stubbornness not to negotiate.”

“On the other hand, everybody can see clearly how he is setting the election process at his hand by pushing out his most important opponents. He might be crazy enough to believe that if he starts a war with Rwanda the international community might support him again and that he might be able to postpone the upcoming elections. “  

“And then there are other doom scenarios,” continues a very well-known Congo watcher. “He might instigate panic and paranoia in the minds of the inhabitants of Goma and his troops on the spot to let the city implode. Most of these people are still firm believers of Patrick Muyaya’s propaganda and a couple of mortar shells or hand grenades in the city center set off by a couple of his own collaborators might trigger this off. This might let the locals believe that the M23 wants to invade, and hell might break loose. If the M23 would move into the city to stop the chaos Tshisekedi would then be able to say that the M23 was planning this to take over the city and start their ‘balkanization’ of the region. Those clichés could be easily swallowed by the rest of the Congolese and provide him extra support.”   

“Likewise, hell might also break loose when these locals will understand how their leaders have been lying to them by using them as pawns in a chess game. It is also a fact that the FARDC does not completely control its proxy fighting groups. A local commander of the FDLR or the Nyatura might decide to lob a couple of mortar shells over the border. Distributing weapons to local Congolese militia’s is the same thing as providing lighters, matches and fuel cans to a bunch of pyromaniacs. Anything can happen when undisciplined or extremist thugs take things into their own hands.”

Rwanda, M23

In Rwanda the conviction is growing that Tshisekedi has already passed the point of no return. “They accuse us of wanting to balkanize the Kivu’s, to steal their minerals and they allowed genocide forces such as the FDLR to impregnate their racist anti-Tutsi theories into the Congolese propaganda mill. We cannot allow this as we will not allow these negative forces to attack us from Congo,” reacts a high up official in Kigali. “18 months ago, the international community and groups such as Human Rights Watch already accused us of supporting the M23 but until now they were never able to prove that with hard facts. They also tried to shovel several serious human rights abuses into our shoes. The so called Kishishe massacre is a good example of that. The story was fake but most of the international media had reported it already. None of them rectified this lie afterwards! It is a fact, though, that the public opinion in Rwanda is mainly pro M23. Several Rwandan families have relatives in the DRC, and we cannot deny that some of our RDF soldiers with Congolese roots returned to the DRC to fight for the M23.  We also tried to explain that to most of the foreign diplomats and military attaches in Kigali. But most of their governments seem to be deaf because they are lacking the guts to confront the Congolese with this truth.   Most of the Rwandans are convinced that the M23 should not back down. The FDLR should also be dealt with accordingly. The prosperity of our country also depends on peace with our neighbors and the ability to do business with them in a normal way.  If they attack, we will react, but we will always leave the door open for a peaceful solution. We are waiting for them at the border. Rwanda is not one of the main actors in this conflict. The Tshisekedi government should talk directly to the M23.”

“We already accepted to withdraw out of certain positions without having been implied in these negotiations ourselves,” tells us Bertrand Bisimwa, the M23 president. “We showed our goodwill many times, but the rules of engagement were shattered several times by the FARDC and their allies. So, we fought back and now the FARDC is paying a heavy price for that. We are also fighting to protect the civilian population. The FARDC and their allies are as good as finished.  And still, they are refusing to talk to us. We will not back down until all our demands will be fulfilled but the good thing is that the international community is now starting to see that we are not the real culprits.”  “It is now up to them to come and see us to talk,” tells us another M23 official.  “If they do not want to listen, we’ll set things straight ourselves.”

Abys    

As we are writing all this a bunch of ACPLS militia members tried to attack M23 positions in Kitchanga and we received news that a lot of people are fleeing Mweso. The M23 countered the attack, and they are now going after the heavy artillery of the FARDC on the road between Mweso and Nyanzale.

Hundreds of people already lost their lives in this useless war, most of them are young Congolese who believed the lies Patrick Muyaya & co were feeding them. Those lies are still being used but the Kinshasa kleptocrats are running out of victims who want to put them into practice on the battlefield. The hatred campaign that was set up against the Tutsi’s, the killings that followed, the burning and the looting of their houses and their cows are other crimes for which the political elite in Kinshasa will have to take responsibility. The racist which hunt of Tutsi’s is one thing; most of the Congolese do not seem to understand that the killing machine that has been created to do this will soon turn against themselves.   The hypocrisy in this discussion is huge: most of the people who are following up on this situation, inside and outside Congo, do not want to be quoted in articles like this; Congo is their bread and butter, and the government might kick them out or create diplomatic incidents.    

The propaganda bubble is bursting, on the international level it already did. To preserve his position and to avoid losing face amongst the Congolese population Tshisekedi might push his country even further into the abys.  Joe Biden, the EU leaders, the French president, or other people with enough influence should tell him to take a break or to start talking about peace. Enough is enough!  It is very difficult not to become too cynical about the events in the DRC.

 

Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu press Agency