The nearly impassable roads to Washington and Doha

Yesterday, Reuters published a clear and comprehensive article providing greater insight into the U.S. demands for reaching a peace agreement in Congo. Essentially, they are now asking the Rwandans to withdraw from Congo, cease their support for the M23 rebellion, and indirectly urge the rebel group to vacate positions in favor of the old Congolese administrative authorities and the Congolese army. It has also become apparent that the negotiations between these rebels and the Kinshasa delegation in Doha yielded little to no progress. Previously, Donald Trump and colleagues had announced that an agreement would be signed by July. Now, two months have passed. If we can believe Reuters a peace deal can only be possible if these conditions are met. I took the initiative to discreetly gauge what those involved think. It’s not easy, and it’s somewhat akin to reading tea leaves: both the M23 and Rwandese officials were unavailable for comment. This will probably result in a few official statements in the coming hours or days, but we prefer not to wait for that.

America

“The Americans didn’t do their homework properly,” begins an international observer. This gentleman works as a consultant for several official international organizations and knows the region well. “They continue to follow Kinshasa’s narrative and completely overlook the realities on the ground. M23 now has a significant grip on the region they ‘liberated,’ and they are not willing to give that up easily. The Rwandans have far less influence over the organization than the Americans and Europeans like to believe. The figure of 7,000 to 12,000 Rwandese troops in Congo is greatly exaggerated. They also forget that Rwanda and M23 have faced the same stalemate repeatedly in the past, and Kinshasa has consistently failed to honor previous agreements. We've run into this problem at least five times. Holding Rwanda responsible for the M23 issue is a sharp rebuke to Paul Kagame. By engaging in their initiative, they’re essentially forcing Kigali to admit their so called ‘large-scale involvement’. Reuters also consulted some experts claiming that the FDLR no longer poses a threat to Rwanda—which is inaccurate. Over the past years, the FDLR, which was nearly wiped out four years ago, has been reactivated by Tshisekedi. These Hutu extremists have now fled to South Kivu, Burundi, and regions around Walikale and Butembo. Kigali understands well if they fully withdraw from the Congolese Kivu provinces, accusations from Kinshasa will continue to pour in. So, why bother?”

“Another cliché circulating in American and European diplomatic circles is that Paul Kagame withdrew his troops from Congo in 2013, leaving M23 to fend for itself, and that by doing this the M23 will collapse.” adds another observer. “They know want to repeat this. I also get the impression that Trump, after his diplomatic failures in Ukraine and Gaza, wants to quickly score a peace deal in Congo. Without understanding the deeper causes of this conflict and assuming he can force African leaders to listen to him. He was probably also blinded by the offer of minerals, in exchange of his support, a sweet deal Felix Tshisekedi offered him on a silver platter. Trump swallowed it without first checking the asbestos content of the other ingredients. From nearly all my conversations with Rwandese officials, I can tell that frustration in Kigali over this misunderstanding runs high.”

“The only reason the Rwandan government is participating in these talks is to show good faith,” a local official told us off the record. “European and American leaders have blinkers on when it comes to Africa. They think African leaders should dance to their tune and not cause trouble because they depend on foreign support. Paul Kagame isn’t the type to bend easily. He anticipated all this; if sanctions follow, it will hurt us, but we’ve already implemented far-reaching austerity measures a few months ago to better handle such situations. Public opinion in Rwanda is pro-M23. All Tutsis know that if M23 withdraws, FDLR will destabilize Rwanda again. The Rwandan government can’t even force the rebels to withdraw. The core of M23 is mainly composed of Congolese Tutsis—young men with the same physique as their Rwandan counterparts. Even if the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) withdraw from Congo, the conflict remains an internal Congolese matter. The complaints in Kinshasa have a strongly racist undertone, and the Americans seem unaware of this.”

M23

“By misunderstanding and by pointing fingers at Kigali, the Americans are perpetuating this deadlock and adding more fuel to the fire,” a senior M23 official told us off the record. “We mainly receive moral support from the Rwandese population, which is deeply upset about the anti-Tutsi policies of the Congolese government, lynchings by FDLR, the hatred chaos caused by Patrick Muyaya, and the fact that no one really stands up for us. Even if Kigali abandons us completely, surrendering our controlled zones is not an option. I admit that our new leadership lacks experience, and the region needs economic revival. We need more time to fix that. Following the 2013 scenario and withdrawing would only be a temporary fix. It could plunge the region into another war within a few years. This is our last chance to be heard. Donald Trump, Mickey Mouse or Batman, we will not back down!”

“Washington also ignores the internal dynamics of the Congolese political system,” adds an older Bagogwe. “People like Kabila and Nangaa emphasize an internal Congolese dialogue. The Catholic Church proposed bringing all parties to the table, but that’s too much for the Americans, who seem eager for a quick score. What also strikes me is that most Europeans suddenly support Trump’s Congo plans, even though they are at odds with him over Ukraine, Gaza, tariffs, and his support for neo-Nazis in his own country and Europe. Europe would do better to scrutinize Trump’s Congo policy more closely. They find him acceptable enough to interfere in Congo, but when it comes to their own region, they see Donald Trump as a cunning fool. We refuse to be caught up in this simplistic shortsightedness and become the victim of that!”

Rwanda

To my knowledge, Kigali has not yet officially responded to the new American guidelines. Rwandan officials and figures were unavailable for comment and probably prefer to wait and see. But it’s clear that this deadlock concerns them. It would surprise me if Rwandan authorities took a significant step back in this discussion. “Kigali is well aware that even when they fully withdraw from the Congolese Kivu provinces, Kinshasa will continue to bombard them with racist and unreasonable accusations,” a Rwandan intellectual told me. “Simply because M23 is mainly driven by Congolese Tutsis—outsiders can’t tell whether they are Rwandese or Congolese. If you send an American to the Dutch border in Belgium, they won’t be able to tell if the people they speak to are Flemish or not. But in the African Great Lakes region, almost all Tutsis get branded with the racist label ‘Rwandese.’ In Congo this word became a synonym for the devil. The Tutsi community has become the scapegoat for everything that goes wrong there. And the Americans are following this narrative. Washington is playing poker, and the Rwandans want to play Blackjack.”

Conclusion

The negotiations between the Congolese government delegation in Doha and M23 probably failed because the Congolese officials suddenly felt supported by Washington. I am not entirely sure, because the M23 delegation remained tight-lipped. A European diplomat in Kigali accused Kigali of acting too arrogantly in this dispute. Rwandese leaders do not conform to the cliché of friendly, submissive African children who first get humiliated by Europeans and Americans and then thank them. I can honestly say that the Rwandan Defense Forces are currently present in Congo only to a very limited extent, if not a complete one I invite anyone to verify this, with me,  on the ground. The current crisis in Congo can only be resolved by the Congolese themselves. Fully supporting Tshisekedi only fuels his greed to plunder the country even more. Kigali has already prepared itself against possible sanctions, and the Rwandan population understands this. Meanwhile, M23 can continue without Rwandan support. Following Donald Trump’s efforts to force Rwanda into a counterproductive agreement would be a serious mistake. To be continued...

Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency

PS: My previous articles have been read by thousands of people. This proves there is a strong demand for good information and analysis. The information we provide can always complement that of colleagues or analysts who still have access to Kinshasa. The Makala prison would not really suit me as a new office.