The M23 rebellion: Is no news, good news?
Reliable news out of the Kivus is becoming rare: apart from the usual skirmishes between the pro and anti social media parrots following the M23, the war in the DRC seems to be forgotten and of secondary importance compared to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. The election of Donald Trump as the new US president did the rest. Furthermore, warring parties have been sparse with releasing information, visits to the region are costly and very few international media seem ready to pay for coverage of this conflict. Freelancers basically have to offer their Congo photos or videos nearly for free to get the attention of any publisher. Analysts are becoming weary writing about this conflict because it has become very difficult to locate the fish in this murky and stinking pond. They are afraid to produce nonsensical papers.
We haven’t been able to visit the M23 area either recently, for all these reasons. So, the big question remains: what is really going on there and what can we expect in the future? A good thing that WhatsApp, Signal and other communication tools are available for free. We dove in our contact list: half of the people we called told us that they were following up on events in the region from a distance and they complained about the lack of news; others told us lies and came up with the usual clichés. It also surprised us that the top brass of M23 and FARDC were very stingy with information and most of our findings that we summarize in this paper come from lower ranking collaborators.
Re-enforcements
Most of the people we contacted in the field share this view. Nobody wants to go on the record. “Both the FARDC and the M23 are able to re-enforce their positions, to bring in extra troops and equipment and the M23 is able to strengthen its administrative grip on the liberated areas,” said an M23 officer in the Kitchanga area. “There has only been sporadic fighting, mostly caused by the FDLR and the Wazalendo who want to loot. We also receive more phone calls now from FARDC officers who are scared for what we have in stock for them as soon as the fighting starts again. They tell us that they have received new recruits, weapons and ammunition and that their superior officers in Goma tell them to be ready for the new offensive. But they lost their faith in a positive outcome of that offensive, once it starts. They already beg us to spare them, if we fight back. We have been re-enforced as well with new recruits and gear and we consolidated all our positions on the high ground. We are well-dug in: we are ready for them and the strategy to pursue them is already in place.”
Cannon fodder
“We lost our hope that a new offensive will turn the tide for the FARDC”, added an FARDC colonel. “The Wazalendo are uncontrollable, they are no longer willing to be sent into the front line as cannon fodder to attack the M23. We are even afraid that they will turn their guns against us; they are being guided by the FDLR who are using them to create trouble and to hide themselves in their ranks. The FDLR understands well that this will be their only chance to survive when the M23 hits back. The new recruits they are sending us are badly trained and they are all very scared. This time they will have to do the fighting. They will be no match for the Rwandans and for the M23. I’m convinced that a lot of FARDC will run over to the M23 when the war picks up again. The others will flee. But where to? Goma is surrounded, the city risks to be turned into a blood bath once the fighting starts again. You cannot even compare Goma with a bottle neck. There is no way out. Our situation is desperate! It is true that Tshisekedi sent new gear: some attack drones are operational again, but the rebels have anti-aircraft weapons. With those they can also shoot down planes. The generals in Goma gave orders already that even the Sukhoi jets cannot fly over Kibumba and Masisi. They are scared that they will be shot down. It’s true that many of my colleagues are currently talking to M23 over the phone. They are already trying to make deals with them so that their units will not be damaged too much.” None of the military we talked to seemed convinced that Tshisekedi might turn the situation into his favor on the battlefield with a new offensive.
Constitution
A foreign diplomat in Kinshasa tried to situate the current ongoing conflict into a larger perspective: “The problem with the current leadership in Kinshasa is that most of them do not think further than the size of their bank accounts. If we talk to Tshisekedi we can clearly see that the guy is intellectually not able to deal with serious issues like this. Maintaining himself in power is his only goal and to do that the war in the east serves his purpose well. He wants to change the constitution so that he can stay in power. In January they’ll have to vote for that: even his collaborators Vital Kamerhe and Jean-Pierre Bemba are against this. As is the opposition, civil society and the church. Hoping that he can change the constitution by stirring up the war in the Kivus might deviate the public attention from his dealings in Kinshasa. And if he loses Goma in this process, he will be able to boost again his hypochondria. Tshisekedi has a point when he claims that Rwanda is violating international law when he says send troops over the border. The UN is making a big issue about that, but more and more countries are beginning to understand who the real culprit in this crime is. Their group of experts is the ideal tool for that. Every time you talk with them, they hide behind this argument. Making a bit of noise is the only thing the UN can do to cover their shortcomings. With refusing to negotiate with M23, Kinshasa is making a solution very difficult. The M23 managed to restore order in their liberated zone. People who fled their homes and who are now staying in refugee camps around Goma know this and they want to return to their villages. But the FDLR, the Wazalendo and the FARDC are blocking their path.”
Another diplomat adds this: “On the other side we find the M23 that has a very strong military command and force. But their political branch fails to convince the outside world. Mainly because they attracted several political Kinshasa dropouts who might have put on their rebel uniforms for a short period to regain access to the political and corrupt political Walhalla in Kinshasa. So far, they have failed to convince the international community of the legitimacy of their cause, and they might not be fully trusted by the M23 fighting force. This might be another reason why the military want to keep control over this outfit. They know they’ll need a very strong bargaining position once the negotiations between the M23 and Kinshasa will start, preferably with another president in command. One who will be more flexible and one who understands that this problem can only be solved when the root causes of this conflict can be discussed openly. The fall of Goma might also accelerate this process.”
Side show
“The negotiations in Luanda are a side-show “, a university professor in Europe tells us. “They are trying to bring the Rwandans and the Congolese together but both parties know very well that these talks will not solve the problem. With a bit of luck, they might stop the war for a while but if Kinshasa refuses to talk to the M23 leadership, their efforts will be in vain. Rwanda is playing along to show the outside world that talking is better than fighting. For Tshisekedi, the talks in Angola have become a tool to gain extra time. The SADC force on the spot is also keeping a low profile as they will not be able to stop a new outbreak of the war. So far, they have done nothing to stop the violence. And when the M23 will be able to take Goma, they will be left behind in their underpants. The mercenaries are just there to collect their cheques at the end of the month. It’s a scandal: instead of renewing and re-organizing the FARDC, Kinshasa is spending its money on foreigners who will not even fight when needed. I’m not even talking about the activities of the UN in Congo. They have been proven to be utterly useless. The often-questionable findings and conclusions of the UN group of experts are often used as a shield to cover the ineffectiveness of this money-eating institution in the field. Our sources in Goma also tell us that the population is fed up with all this misery and all this violence. A lot of them would even favor the M23 walking into Goma to restore order.”
Black sheep
President Kagame’s remarks that Tshisekedi is a mad man of whom you can never know in advance how he will react are being shared by most of the people we talk to. In previous reports, we described how the population in the Kivus is suffering from this war. The Rwandan authorities want this problem to be solved as soon as possible. But leaving their flank open for the FDLR to infiltrate and to destabilize Rwanda again is not an option. The war in the DRC is also weighing heavily on the budget of the small country. “Most Rwandans are supporting the cause of the M23,” a Rwandan journalist tells us who was himself born in the DRC. “Kagame wants to develop his country, and he wants peace. But he cannot abandon his brothers in Congo. The Rwandan public opinion would not accept this. He already accepted the terms of the UN to stop supporting Laurent Nkunda and in 2013 also Sultani Makenga. But this time he understands that this is their last chance to solve this problem once and for all. The Tutsi community has been left in the cold by the international community several times in the past. Books have been written about all this. It is true that the Rwandan army also made mistakes in Congo. Nowadays Tutsis have become the black sheep for everything that went wrong there. Many people here think that when Goma falls this problem will already be (partially) solved. December will indeed be a crucial month for the region. Let’s wait and see! “
Access
Our conclusion is that both the M23 and the Congolese army have benefited from the lull in the fighting but there are several indications that this might change soon. Tshisekedi’s political position is weakening by the day and the military buildup on both sides might lead to a new eruption of violence. And in this process Goma might fall!
The misery and the violence in the DRC are touching us badly but without full access to the field things have become complicated. Checking things on the spot is always our core business. Following up on the events in DRC is a time-consuming job and you’re often confronted with people who have an anti-media attitude. Others lack the capacity to put this matter in a broader perspective and some simply do not want outsiders to put their noses into their monkey business. Key players are contradicting themselves all the time and exposing this as a risky affair. If you try to discuss it, you become a nuisance to them, even when you’re defending the same cause. This is another reason why we have kept silent for so many months.
To be continued!
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns – Kivu Press Agency