The kamikaze actions of a desperate and badly informed president who lost the war already several times…...
New prospects for peace in the Congolese Kivu’s seem more distant than ever: Tshisekedi keeps refusing to talk directly with the M23, he is hustling the East African Community Forces in every possible way and his generals in the field convince him that a new war against the M23 can be won. The FARDC and its allies (FDLR, Nyatura, Mayi Mayi, etc.) are infiltrating again some of the zones that were vacated by the M23 during the past weeks and days, these forces are preparing now new offensives in the north, the south and the west of the M23 zone, etc. The M23 is keeping a close eye on all this. They are ready to respond when the EACRF will withdraw and the FARDC will attack again. Several military analysts, diplomats and Congo watchers tell me that a much bigger war in the region will become unavoidable now. This can happen very soon but it can also be delayed by the fact that Kinshasa is still waiting for new equipment and fresh mercenaries to put this in motion. So far nearly nobody stepped forward to denounce this truth: contradicting Kinshasa’s propaganda mill is a capital sin that is often punished with extraditions, prison sentences and diplomatic hustle. But Kinshasa is currently losing the propaganda war, behind the screens several diplomats and international institutions are tapping the Congolese government on its fingers to become more flexible. But this does not seem to work. So, a new head-on collision with the M23 seems unavoidable. But will it come to that? And if yes, what could be the possible scenarios? Being a devil’s advocate without slipping away in a cynical narrative is not easy. But we’ll try!
· Kinshasa might attack the M23 while the EACRF is still deployed in its current positions. We received credible info that the FARDC-FDLR coalition is already infiltrating EAC positions in and around Kibumba, Rwindi, Killolirwe-Kithchanga and possibly also in other places. As we speak, they are forwarding ammunition, hardware and soldiers to these places. The M23 vacated these areas during the past weeks but still remains present in its surroundings. The deployment of the EACRF did not happen fast enough and some of the areas they were supposed to deploy are still under-staffed. It is also known that some of the EAC forces are becoming weary of what can happen. The Burundians f.i. were seen openly with the FDLR and the FARDC in places where those forces were not supposed to be present. Clashes with the M23 could easily be triggered off in this atmosphere of distrust and if they would expand the EACRF would be squeezed between the M23 and the FARDC like a sausage in a sandwich and be forced to fight back. Kinshasa would profit of this chaos tom lure the EACRF into a fight with the M23. These clashes might possibly end very fast and could enable Kinshasa to obtain better cards on the political poker table. The renewed fighting would probably spark off a new propaganda offensive on Twitter and Facebook. New arguments could be found to discredit the utility of the EACRF, etc. This is one possibility! If this happens it might even be dressed up as well with other dombolo tactics that might give Kinshasa more time to move inn bigger guns. In this scenario it is very likely that Rwanda will be provoked as well in the hope that they would get more directly involved in this conflict. But it would be very unlikely that President Kagame would swallow this bait if the EAC forces are still present on the spot.
· Kinshasa might also want to postpone this all-out war against the M23 to have an extra argument that it will be impossible to organize elections and to position itself stronger, better equipped and with new allies (Chinese and/or Russians?!) to take the cow with its horns. In the meanwhile, the pressure on the EACRF to start fighting the M23 as well could be stepped up; protests in Goma could be organized against them, Rwanda could be accused even more to meddle in Congolese affairs, etc. And the EAC forces would lose their permission to be present in the region and would have to withdraw. Tshisekedi is surrounded by generals who tell him that a war on several fronts against the M23 could be won easily, especially when assisted by new contingents of mercenaries. These corrupt generals are able to convince their president that a war against the M23 can still be won, even if the M23 already swept the floor with them several times during the past months. A possible victory in the Kivu’s is the only valid card he has left to win the future elections for which he will have more time to get better organized since they would already be postponed. If the fighting would spell into Rwanda and if the EAC forces would have returned home the possibility to see the RDF move into Congo would become much bigger. Kagame will never allow to have this war fought out on Rwandan soil.
This would be the doom scenario for this region and especially for the Kivu’s. The fighting would force thousands of people to flee their homes, hundreds or thousands could die. As Tshisekedi would probably not be able to win this war the whole country might fall apart. Most of the international observers who still lack the courage to criticize Kinshasa openly for its stupidities would probably start condemning it when this conflict grows out of its current proportion. The Americans and the European powers who are currently still in their soft modus towards Kinshasa would have to choose openly sides as well. Africa would be saddled up with a second Sudan-like catastrophe and the Russians would be clapping in their hands to find a new conflict that would draw the attention away from their activities in Ukraine. Tshisekedi can never win this war that he already lost several times but his mad kamikaze actions will pull Congo completely into the abys.
· As we speak the Luanda and the Nairobi peace efforts have proven already their complete bankruptcy. Intelligent people know and acknowledge that the M23 cannot be compared with other groups such as CODECO, NDC-Renovee, Nyatura and the FDLR. They also know that the M23 will not allow to be slaughtered and that the group is already anticipating these possible scenarios. The Rwandans as well. In the course of these events, they were always accused of being the most important instigators of all the misery that is hitting the DRC. This was fiercely exaggerated but Rwanda cannot be accused for defending its own borders and interests.
More violence and war should always be avoided. The Americans, the French, the Chinese, the Belgians and the English did not speak out clearly just until now because they did not want to jeopardize the flow of minerals and oil towards their countries. This madness can still be stopped! But the clock is ticking!
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns