The Burundian involvement in DRC issues is triggering an inevitable regional conflict
Analyzing the ongoing problems in the Congolese Kivu’s is very difficult. It was already very difficult in the past to understand this melting pot of contradictions, violence, greed, ethnicism and the region has known wars for decades. We followed up on it for many years now and we already wrote several papers about it. Nobody is reporting on this war. Other wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine seem to be more important. But here in the Kivu’s thousands of people are on the run for ethnic violence and the ongoing war. Following up on conflicts like these gave us a terrible déjà-vu: despite the big knowledge a lot of people and observers have about the sources of this conflict, some of the mayor protagonists in this play were allowed to continue their criminal and violent games. Right now, the situation is getting even more complex, and the risk is getting bigger by the day that it might turn into a regional conflict. And yes, we already warned you for this in the past: each time we think that the situation will explode completely we wrote articles about it. We’ll try to analyze the situation as it presents itself now and check how it has changed the last couple of months. One of the elements that jumps out of the general context is the involvement of Burundi in this mess.
The current Congo policy of the Burundian president Evariste Ndayismiye (‘General Neva’) is very difficult to understand for many outsiders. Burundi is a small country that rarely reaches the international news, but its internal dynamics are now also threatening peace in the region. To understand this well, we’ll have to dive back into the recent past of the country. Burundian troops are now fighting side by side with the FDLR (Rwandan Hutu extremists) who are already collaborating with the FARDC and the Nyatura (Congolese Hutu rebels). Their involvement grew during the past couple of months.
“General Neva is playing a very dangerous game, and he is walking on a very thin ice,” tells us a foreign military analyst. “It is as if he lost touch with reason; on one hand, he is now playing openly the cards of Tshisekedi by sending hundreds of Burundian soldiers into the line of fire in Congo. They already lost many soldiers. The Burundian generals do not mind this at all. In exchange Neva is receiving guarantees from Kinshasa to score mineral deals in the DRC. Most of the minerals that were dug up in Rubaya passed through Burundi via this network. And the clique around the president where cashing in on that. Rubaya is just one example and in Rubaya he could fall back on his good contacts with the FDLR who was also benefiting from this mine. Rubaya is now under siege of the M23 but Neva & co can fall back on other mines in South-Kivu as well. We also know that Neva, as well as his army chief of staff Prime Niyongabo, passed through Kinshasa where they received a lot of money from Tshisekedi. They kept that for themselves.”
“Last year General Neva was still on good terms with Rwanda but that did not last long, “ continuous a leader of the Burundian Société Civile “He came under pressure from another group of Hutu extremists who were guided by General Alain Guillaume Bunyoni, a very eccentric guy who liked to dress up like a clown but who had also won his spurs under the former president Pierre Nkurunziza fighting a rebel war in the DRC. Bunyoni is very popular in the army and has a lot of support of the extremist Inbonakure militia in Burundi. This militia was set up as a kind of a second defense against growing opposition of the Société Civile and certain Tutsi groups. Neva had this man condemned to life last year and he is now locked up in jail. After Nkurunziza died the group around Bunyoni and the group around General Neva got engaged in a power struggle. Other Hutu extremist leaders were killed. Neva won the race. By that time, the country was economically completely on its knees; international donors had stopped their aid after several reports on human rights abuses and corruption were published and Neva tried to regain recognition while restoring the relationship with Rwanda and profiling himself as a local and regional negotiator to solve the problems in the DRC. Business with Rwanda picked up again. The Rwandans knew very well that this uneasy standoff with Burundi would probably not last long, but they went along with it, even when it became clear that people such as Paul Rusesabagina, the Hollywood hero, was setting up a small army to infiltrate Rwanda from Burundi with the support of the FDLR and the RNC (another Rwandan opposition group). Rusesabagina did not get very far, and the Rwandans had to tap Neva on his fingers to walk back in the correct line.”
“But the Hutu lobby in Burundi is not a homogenic structure. Neva had a part of the Burundian business community against him who was supported by the Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete, a staunch supporter of the Hutu cause in Rwanda and in Burundi, and by other generals in Burundi such as Alain Guillaume Bunyoni. They started putting pressure on the newly chosen president by limiting the import of fuel and livestock so that the population would blame the president. Neva managed to put Bunyoni behind iron bars but many observers think that the latter has not outplayed his role yet. Neva would probably have him killed if he would not have been scared that this would have put other generals on his case. “
“The Burundian army already had a tradition to fight in the DRC. They were already engaged in a war against the Red Tabara, a Burundian rebel group that contained many Tutsis but that had also gained a bad reputation for looting, killing, and raping the Congolese population. The Rwandans never made a problem about this because they also understood that Red Tabara was not the right tool to influence politics in Burundi. The Burundian army was already inside the DRC when they committed themselves to the East African force to step in to stop the war between the FARDC and the M23. Meanwhile, Neva started to radicalize his attitude again towards Rwanda. He even closed the border again to please Bunyoni’s business partners who favorized business with Tanzania. And he struck a deal with Tshisekedi after the withdrawal of the EAC forces to stay put in the DRC with his army and send more soldiers. The big mistake he is making is the fact that he is keeping the profits of his monkey business deals for himself and that he is not sharing with the other rats inside Burundian leadership community.”
“General Neva is feeling the hot breath of his opponents in his neck,” tells us a Burundian journalist. “Several hundreds of Burundian troops already deserted the army in Burundi because they do not want to be sent as canon father to Congo. They know their buddies are dying there like flies. And the population is also starting to ask questions about all this; in many cases, names of fallen Burundian soldiers are not reported in official documents and many families are asking now what happened to their sons. Even many Inbonerakure are now recruited to go and fight in the DRC and many of them are also fleeing. It is as if Neva knows his time in the office is nearly done and he is swallowing up as much cash as he can to retreat to another country. Bunyoni is not a good option to take over from Neva. That man is also known as a criminal, and he will start up new monkey business deals. Burundi is already one of the poorest countries in Afrika and its population is terrorized by the Inbonerakure militia and corrupt government officials. In case things turn to worse for ‘Interahamwe’ (FDLR) in Congo they can only flee to our country.”
The influence of the Rwandan FDLR in Burundian affairs has always been important. They trained Inbonerakure militia, they were involved in many business deals in Burundi. “Their involvement is more important than most people believe,” according to a Burundian officer in Bujumbura. “They are trying to revive the old sentiments against the Tutsi’s, and they tell new recruits that war in the DRC is a kind of a ‘all or nothing’ spectacle to contain the power of the Tutsi’s. This is also why the Hutu lobby is spreading hatred messages inside the DRC. The social media shows clearly that the whole Hutu extremist network is involved in this. Recently General Neva brought out statements that underlined this strategy.
The Burundian relationship with Tanzania has also been a rather complex topic to understand. As we mentioned already, Kikwete, the former Tanzanian president, set up a business structure in the country and forged a special relationship with certain Burundian leaders. “General Neva was not part of this clique and he had to forge other alliances to gain strength. Remember Kikwete is somehow still an advisor to the new Tanzanian leadership, but this does not necessarily share all his regional views. The new people in charge also want to do business with Rwanda and with Uganda and recently, it became clear that Tanzania started questioning the fact that FARDC is relying too much on the extremist FDLR and sending civilians on the front line to do their fighting. To summarize this their attitude contrasts nearly completely with the actions of General Neva and president Tshisekedi who are relying heavily on the FDLR to realize their plans. It looks like South-Africa and Tanzania are now examining well the situation. They are checking the depth of the Congolese pit before they will jump into it.“
“The situation in the Kivu’s is indeed very explosive and complex,” adds a top-ranking Rwandan official. “But the presence of SADEC and its possible involvement in offensive operations against the M23 is not the main problem. Today the actions of General Neva are more important to follow. We are convinced that the South-African president, his Tanzanian colleague, and the Angolans understand what and who they are dealing with and that they will not step into Tshisekedi’s dream world. They will certainly not fall for the cheap tricks of the Burundian president who is throwing his own soldiers in the line of fire to enrich himself. Burundian politics lack consistency and are full of contradictions that are very difficult to understand for outsiders. Let’s hope that reason will prevail. This is one of the last chances for the international community to solve the problems in DRC into a peaceful solution. If they mess it up and if the integrity of Rwanda will be violated, our reaction will be accordingly. Burundi is profiling itself as a big empty balloon. A couple of needle pricks are all that is needed to solve this dilemma.”
Adeline Umutoni and Marc Hoogsteyns – Kivu Press Agency.