Patrick Muyaya’s swan song is falling on deaf ears…. Kinshasa is losing the Kivu provinces!
Once again, the FARDC-FDLR-Nyatura and Wazalendo coalition is on the run. Their counter offensive in and around Masisi failed, they endured a serious beating and the M23 pushed them out of Minova. Kalehe is now in reach of the M23 and after that Kavumu, the location of Bukavu’s airport, might follow. This move would put Tshisekedi’s effort in the Kivus checkmate. Knowing that the island of Idjwi in the Kivu Lake is defended very poorly against a possible M23 attack and that the FARDC has nearly no ships would also offer the rebels an ideal occasion to block the Kivu Lake completely for traffic between Goma and Bukavu. This war is starting to get a new dimension, one that could separate both of the Kivu provinces from the rest of the country and not only the northern part. In the meanwhile, the FARDC keeps falling into the traps the M23 sets up for them; hundreds of Burundian soldiers, FDLR and FARDC soldiers were killed and the desertions in their ranks are very high. The rebels lure them into a counterattack, allowing them to advance just far enough to put them into an envelope and mow them down. Whether or not Goma will be taken in the following days remains the question, but the FARDC is already completely defeated. In the meanwhile, Tshisekedi’s propaganda machine continues to claim victories on the battlefield. In the Kivus history is repeating itself every week and the leadership in Kinshasa doesn’t seem to have learned much from their previous mistakes. And many Congo watchers are now asking themselves what exactly the South-African troops and the European mercenaries are still doing there, on the frontlines they are nowhere to be seen. To see things clearly in this mess is not an easy task but we’ll try! We are basing ourselves on several phone conversations we had with our contacts.
Donkey
“As we speak the South-African troops and the mercenaries are shelling the Minova peninsula, but they are not hitting anything and they already withdrew their forces from positions closer to Sake,” tells us a military analyst in Goma. “This shows clearly that they do not want to get involved in hand-to-hand combat. They are shelling the M23 now from a safe distance and they have already withdrawn some of their heavy artillery to Goma. The SADF and the mercenaries have shown their ineffectiveness big time during the past month and they even failed to correct the strategical errors of the FARDC. How is it possible that the M23 can lure the FARDC constantly in the same trap? The M23 allows them to counterattack, to advance and the only thing is to wait if they go for this bait. Once the mice enter, they only must close the trap and mow them down. Even a donkey does not hurt itself 3 times at a rock, but the FARDC made that mistake already more than 10 times. Tomorrow it will probably become clear if Sake is fallen as well. The M23 will only move into Sake and probably pass through it right away to neutralize the heavy artillery positions of the SADF and the mercenaries near Lac Vert. After they will have done this the FARDC will probably counter attack again. This attack will be stopped and the M23 will be able to move to Mugunga. And once that is done, Goma is next door”.
A staffer of MONUSCO in Goma who is monitoring closely these events gives us more info: “We are situated between the hammer and the iron. The UN allowed the FARDC to integrate the FDLR into their ranks, their officers are simply not up to the task of commanding their troops properly and the soldiers are poorly trained. Very often, they do not receive their salaries, and they do not want to die in this far-off region. Once they arrive, they see that the propaganda that was pumped into their heads in Kinshasa doesn’t match the reality in the field. The Wazalendo are refusing now to spearhead the attacks so that they have to do this dangerous job themselves. Many of their friends already died and they are all following the news on the social media. They want to go home, or they surrender. It’s a real disaster. For Burundian troops, the situation is even worse: they were warned previously by the M23 that there would be no pardon for them on the battlefield. Hundreds of them were killed in action: the official figure is nearly 200 but we know that the real number is much higher. And hundreds of them are wounded. The rest fled to Bukavu and they refused to fight again. President Neva of Burundi, one of Tshisekedi’s allies, said yesterday that deserters will be executed. These poor guys have no place to go! Several Burundian Tutsi soldiers also deserted to join the M23.”
During the past couple of days, Rwanda received several FDLR fighters at its borders for rehabilitation. “We see more and more hard core FDLR fighters coming back,” tells us a Rwandan official. “They were all scared to be killed on the frontline by the M23 and they decided to give themselves up before it is too late. The zero-tolerance strategy of the M23 clearly works. Most of them are second or third generation FDLR who do not know Rwanda. They all tell us that their FDLR brothers are dying like flies. ”
Strategy
“We surprised the FARDC by pushing them into South-Kivu,” tells us an M23 officer. “We also lost soldiers during the recent fighting but compared to the losses of the enemy those were minimal. Our strategy was simple: to strangle Goma even harder than before, to advance on Bukavu, to cut off their communication lines with the outside world and to force the Congolese government into negotiations. But, as the government continued to refuse to talk with us, we had to adopt this approach; when we take a village now, we'll make sure its people will become far more independent of Kinshasa than it was before, we will install a new administration and we will take care of their security. If they would have agreed with that last year or a couple of months ago, we still could have talked but now they have gone too far: Tshisekedi says we are terrorist and of Rwandan origin. But we are Congolese citizens, and we want to bring our families back to their villages of origin. As long as the politicians in Kinshasa refuse to understand that we’ll continue to fight. Right now, we don’t need the Congolese government to listen to us. Their stubbornness forced us to abandon the path of negotiations and peace talks and we can confront them with their own stupidity. We can walk into Goma tomorrow if we want, we can occupy Bukavu and manage our own security, administration and future. They asked themselves for this solution.”
“Our strategy also contained psychological elements,” continues a member of the Bagogwe community in Rwanda. “I think that by taking the FARDC by the throat and encircling Goma and maybe also Bukavu the M23 also wanted to create chaos in these cities so that they would implode. If they move into these towns too quickly, the FDLR- FARDC coalition might use civilians as human shields, and this might turn into a nast blood bath. But nobody thought the effect of pushing on to Minova and cutting off the road between the two cities would have such a fast effect. Goma is already in shambles; people are already fleeing to Rwanda, local fat cats and high-ranking officers are trying to find seats on planes as we speak. The first rats are abandoning the sinking ship. The mercenaries and the South-African troops received messages that if they would engage in more offensive practices they’ll be spanked as well. The same goes for the UN-troops because nobody can pretend their complete neutrality. Add to that that the Island of Idjwi can be taken very easily; it is poorly defended and the local Bahavu population is mentally already on our side. The M23 already declared openly today that they will enter Goma. This was not the initial plan, and they were surprised to see the events unfold so fast. Hopefully they will not take hasty decisions now.”
Ways out
A senior FARDC officer shares this opinion: “I hope that the M23 will wait a couple of days to launch their attack on Goma. If they are smart, they will allow the hard core FDLR, Wazalendo and FARDC to flee. That will also offer the South-Africans, Monusco and the mercenaries time to rethink their strategies. Those who wish to stay can surrender. The M23 already said that they will not be harmed and that they will be free to leave the city afterwards. Otherwise, this whole story might end up in a bloodbath and I don’t think that the M23 would like to have this published on their curriculum vitae. It will be very easy for the rebels to block access to Goma by boat and by plane”.
“The situation is very confused,” tells us a foreigner who is living in Goma. “Those FDLR- and Wazalendo thugs are capable to create big problems and the retreat of the FARDC might provoke looting and a lot of violence. “I have the impression that the population of Goma is tired of all the lies of people such as Patrick Muyaya and his boss Tshisekedi. Yesterday we saw Muyaya being interviewed on French television. The international community should tell Tshisekedi that enough is enough and Monusco should get a mandate to protect the local civilians against any kind of abuses from the government coalition. And the mercenaries and South-African troops should leave immediately because the rebels will probably not treat them nicely. I also think that the M23 will be well received by the locals. They know that they treated their brothers and sisters in the surrounding villages well.”
The following hours and days will determine the faith of Goma and probably also Bukavu. If Goma falls Bukavu will probably follow. The FARDC coalition is counter attacking the M23 advance now with tanks and heavy artillery. Kinshasa is trying to mediatize this effort to show the outside world that they still have the situation under control but those who are following up on these events understand that Muyaya’s swan song is falling on deaf ears now. As always, this counterattack will probably fail, and the fleeing troops will have no other way out than the city of Goma. In this kind of scenario anything can happen. More info will follow…..
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency.