"Maxime Prevot’s diplomatic impotence in Congo can only fuel the war"

"Maxime Prevot’s diplomatic mess in Congo only pours more oil on the fire," tells us a European Congo watcher. "It only encourages corrupt leaders like Neva and Tshisekedi to continue their mismanagement quietly. By reinforcing the narrative that Rwanda is the big villain in this conflict who is violating international rules by actively fighting alongside the M23, Prevot makes serious mistakes. And not everyone in Belgium agrees with his approach. The anti-Belgian propaganda machine in Kigali and Goma grossly exaggerates Belgium’s active involvement in steering a new and larger conflict in that country. But it can be said that Prevot’s diplomatic re-enforces this image. Belgium has already been sidelined for many years, diplomatically and economically, in this part of Africa. All that remains for the Belgians are their historical links with the region and the fact that Brussels can still be seen as an informational and logistical hub for Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo. And that last link, Prevot is now destroying as well. His successors will face many problems trying to piece that together again."

Gaston Lagaffe

These are not reassuring words for a newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs who previously had no connection with Africa. "Prevot tries to position himself as someone who wants to bring peace to Africa. But to do this, he surrounds himself with fervent Rwanda haters and relies on the classic 'Eurocentric' values. And that’s a mistake many Europeans make; they assume that African countries must respect the democratic values as upheld in Europe, while many also agree that this does not work in Africa. Because these values often serve merely as a ‘façade’ that allows corruption and violence to flourish. Rwanda has developed its own political system to avoid falling back into the mistakes of its neighbors, focusing on the development and security of its own country. The Rwandans are very proud that this new political model works well and that their country is advancing fast. President Kagame has also shown multiple times that he does not want to dance to the European tune. Brussels also centralizes the Rwandan opposition in exile and hosts numerous organizations that propagate the theories of those responsible for the 1994 genocide of the Tutsi. Several 'genocide suspects' maintained close contacts with Belgian politicians, and their children, who now also hold Belgian nationality, are very active in Belgian politics, especially within Flemish and Walloon Catholic parties. It is precisely this clique that, regarding Africa, is steering Prevot. If one thing is clear, it is that Kigali despises the condescending, paternalistic finger of Belgian governments, which often bear much responsibility for their country’s disastrous history. Prevot is a perfect example: he was the driving force behind an anti-M23 and anti-Rwanda offensive within the European Community, he makes sweet deals with the Congolese and Burundian governments, and he claims that Rwanda is violating international law and that the current M23 administration in the Kivu provinces should give way again to the old administration that was ousted. But he forgets to mention that Tshisekedi’s appointment as president was also not exactly done legally and was mainly based on a compromise imposed by countries like Belgium and the U.S. The Rwandan government was annoyed by him and diplomatically pushed Belgium out. This places Prevot in the role of a diplomatic ‘Groucho Marx, or to put this in Belgian terms as a kind of a ‘Gaston Lagaffe’,  a political blunderer who neither wanted nor understood how things really stand in this part of Africa."

Lobby groups

"Prevot clearly only listens to arguments fed to him by the Belgian embassy in Kinshasa and by the conservative, borderline negationist anti-Kigali lobby in Brussels," adds a Belgian diplomat. "And this while he also has free access to information that could balance all this and clearly shows that the clique of African rulers he constantly supports is actually the root of all problems, even if they hide behind a thick layer of propaganda and pseudo-legality. In Belgium, there are two political lobby groups interested in Congo: one group of Catholics still bitter that the Catholic Church in Rwanda colonized the country in such a way that it inevitably led to open conflict and retribution, and a liberal faction that indirectly also has business interests in Congo and is more pro-Kigali. Louis Michel was the maestro of this group, and others like Herman Decroo can be counted as loyal followers. The business connections with people like Georges Forest, a crocodile of a former Congolese government, can be easily demonstrated. It’s also widely known that Flemish and Walloon Christian Democrats received money from the then-President Mobutu to fund their election campaigns. For Prevot, Congo is an ideal platform to still somewhat position himself as an international politician in Europe. In the entire Ukraine debate in Europe, he hardly appears. But insiders know that the good man mostly sells air and that Belgium in Africa now means almost nothing."

"That logic makes sense," adds another Belgian diplomat. "For the Rwandan government, Prevot was thus an easy target, and through the expulsion of the Belgian embassy, they could send a warning shot to other foreign diplomats criticizing the Rwandan Congo policy. Don’t forget that in West Africa, the French were expelled by a few countries. Many Africans approve of that. But despite our country making serious mistakes in Africa and Congo, and despite Maxime Prevot not understanding the language used by the Rwandan government, I think Kigali overreacted a bit. The fact is that most Belgians are not actively involved in what is happening in Rwanda or in Kivu now. Many Belgians are also not against Rwanda; they are simply very poorly and one-sidedly informed by a handful of journalists who have lost all contact with the ground in Africa. And that makes it very difficult to counter the prejudices that the Rwandan government is too arrogant and is the driving force behind M23."

Offensive

"Everyone is currently expecting an offensive by the Congolese army, Burundian troops, and the FDLR-Wazalendo," adds a well-informed military analyst. "The FARDC is strengthening its front forces: they are sending hundreds, if not thousands, of new and very poorly trained recruits to the front from Kisangani, heading towards Walikale. They are well equipped with heavy weapons, but their commanding officers all have an egg on their face, because if they fail now, they will face the same fate as their predecessors in Bunagana, Rutshuru, Masisi, and Bukavu. Already more than 40 of those are now under investigation (or already in jail) in Kinshasa. In villages like Kibua, platforms are being set up for attack drones. The logistical line between Walikale and Kisangani can be very easily cut by the M23, and we can already predict that the FARDC will be beaten again, from pillar to post, even if they are attacking simultaneously through Uvira, Nyanzale, and possibly from Kanyabayonga. And the weapons they carry with them will end up in the M23 stocks.  For the M23, this is the perfect opportunity to fully 'cleanse' their region of the last remnants of FDLR, FARDC, and the administration sent from Kinshasa. New battles also give the M23 extra time to improve their weak administration and to purge their ranks of elements that are less disciplined. Maxime Prevot knows all this as well, but he didn’t advise Tshisekedi to keep his cool!"

"We are indeed expecting a new offensive," admits one of the M23 officials. "And we are more than ready for it. The only person who believes he can win this new offensive is Tshisekedi himself, because the generals giving him information only tell him what he wants to hear. Our delegation in Doha only needs to do two things: talk about a ceasefire that has not been respected by Kinshasa so far and discuss the release of our political prisoners in Kinshasa. Only when they respect that can we start talking about the possible future interaction between the central government in Kinshasa and the M23 to manage the Kivu’s in the future. But if they attack us in the meantime, all talks are off and the security switches on our AK-47’s will be put on fully automatic."

Conclusion

From this, we can conclude that Maxime Prevot will have a very hard time influencing a peace process in Congo: by openly taking sides, leaving little room for nuance. While flattering Tshisekedi, he only pours more oil on the fire. Because he reinforces the illusion of the Congolese president that he can still win this war and that he will continue to find sufficient support in Europe. He also completely ignores the good advice given by some of his own diplomats and military analysts, he's sticking to the anti-Rwanda narrative popular in the leading Belgian media, without considering other opinions and perspectives. And other African leaders will not respect him because Kagame showed him the front door. To be followed...

Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency.