Last diplomatic efforts to stop the war in Congo fail as foreign diplomats resort to nitpicking and manipulation….
The situation on the various frontlines in the Kivu’s remained static during recent days: SADEC troops are shelling M23 positions in the hills around Sake and Kibumba and a couple of attacks were pushed back. The M23 is waiting for a bigger attack to respond harder and to tighten the noose around Goma. In this scenario Goma’s airport might be shut down by the M23. “We can easily block the runway and put it out of order,” said an M23 officer. “We control the higher ground around Sake and the whole area around the Nyiragongo volcano and Kibumba. If SADEC attacks us, we will stop and kill them as well. That will be their own choice. We have been tolerant and open for discussion for two years during which we were constantly accused of being a proxy-force of Rwanda that instigated another genocide in this country. The things that were promised to us in 2013 were never respected. We withdrew into Uganda and all our attempts to be heard in Kinshasa remained unanswered. Add to this that the FDLR [Rwandan Hutu extremists] was rearmed by the government and that it is now completely incorporated into the FARDC (Congolese army). Even now the UN is fighting side by side with these criminals. And still Tshisekedi, the president, refuses to talk to us. We have reached the point now that we also believe that negotiations will be useless: in a war theatre were the UN fights alongside FDLR-terrorists and with local authorities who never respected the deals they concluded in the past we can not hope that they will do this in the future.”
Negotiations
Behind the scenes foreign diplomats are scurrying to bring the protagonists to the negotiating table. But Kinshasa remains stubborn and refuses to talk to the M23 directly. Tshisekedi’s narrative describes them as Rwandan puppets and the president only wants to talk to the Rwandan president Paul Kagame. When the M23 decided to return to the DRC from Uganda several years ago Rwanda was not involved with Makenga’s outfit anymore. But the M23 was soon after attacked by the FDLR who was already collaborating closely with the FARDC. Sultani Makenga fought back, and he was able to quickly occupy the whole area around Bunagana and Rutshuru. Masisi followed a couple of months later. For Kinshasa this war became a useful tool to camouflage government mismanagement in the rest of the country. The FARDC was no match for the much better motivated M23 fighters who were able to attract reinforcements from the ranks of demobilized RDF soldiers (Rwandan army) of Congolese origin and younger recruits from the refugee camps housing Congolese Tutsis in Rwanda. And very soon the M23 could start counting on the Rwandan government as it became clear that the FDLR was becoming a treat again to destabilize Rwanda. In the meanwhile, the “Wazalendo” (a name given to the alliance of FDLR, Nyatura and other militia’s) were killing hundreds of innocent Tusti civilians from the Hema, Bagogwe, Banyamulenge and Hima clans. Kinshasa is accusing the M23 and Rwanda of the same crimes they are responsible for themselves. Kinshasa’s propaganda mill is spinning at full speed and thousands of dollars are being used to fuel it. As a result, a large part of the international media has taken on Tshisekedi’s narrative that the Rwandan and the Congolese Tutsi’s are the only ones to blame for everything that went wrong in their country. This is another reason why the M23 and now also the Rwandans are completely fed up with lies and accusations from across the border. “This time we will stand our ground and we will not withdraw,” said a senior M23 official. “Time has come to take things into our own hands. The pimple that was growing on Tshisekedi’s arm that could represent the war in the Kivu’s has grown into a very big ulcer, the international community made no efforts to stop it and now we see ourselves forced to cut of the president’s arm to avoid gangrene.”
The American government recently publicly warned the Rwandan government that they should stop their direct support to the M23. Tshisekedi also declared that he would be willing to talk directly to the Rwandan President Paul Kagame. In the meanwhile, he also repeated that the M23 were not of Congolese origin but pure Rwandans. It has also become clear that the present SADEC forces in and around Goma do not whish to follow the example of the Burundian troops of which several hundred were killed by the M23 in brutal frontlal attacks. If the M23 decides to block Goma airport it will be a major blow for Tshisekedi & co in North Kivu. The Tshisekedi regime might not be able to survive such a blow.
Panic
The US and the EU have had more than two years to persuade the Congolese government, thegovernment, the Rwandan government and the M23 on ways to solve this problem in a peaceful manner. But now a sense of panic is percolating through the diplomatic corps that is following the current situation. We were contacted yesterday by a couple of diplomats who are passing trough Kigali after having visited Kinshasa. “Kigali was until now always the more credible of the protagonists given the shaky reputation of their counterparts in Kinshasa,” we heard from one of them. “The Americans sent a couple of firm warnings to the Rwandan government. A big part of the foreign aid Rwanda is receiving comes from the US and the EU. And Kagame did not make himself very popular in Addis Abeba when he claimed that Rwanda was not supporting the M23 and that most of the aid the M23 is receiving comes from Uganda. It was the US special envoy in our delegation who told us this and he also added to this that the RDF was currently employing several hundred ex-FDLR fighters to fight their brothers in the area. We checked these allegations only to find out that they were fake. Kagame had just said in Addis Abeba that he didn’t start the war and that they had returned from Uganda years ago to claim their rights in Congo. He never stated that Uganda was now the main sponsor of the M23 rebellion. The fact that the RDF incorporates ex FDLR in their ranks is also not new.
A senior RDF officer summarizes this as follows: “Young FDLR fighters who return to Rwanda are given a second chance with a good salary to fight for their new country. We also put trust in them that they will do a decent job. We never have problems with them afterwards. Other FDLR elements are often absorbed in local administrations, the police force and one of them even became the boss of the Rwandan prison system.”
Anger
A senior cadre in the Kigali government does not hide his anger over the never-ending saga in the Congolese Kivu’s: “We do not want a war! The US is trying hard, with limited success, due to their inaccurate reading of the drivers of conflict. Led by Felix Tshisekedi who doesn’t understand a thing about war, Kinshasa has tried everything in their bag to achieve a military victory against M23. This has failed miserably, as every attempt has led to further territorial and human losses for him and his coalition. Statements of condemnations are only making things worse as they embolden Tshisekedi in his failed and stubborn strategy. The resulting humanitarian catastrophe should be blamed solely on him and the international community that has failed to dissuade him. There is no military solution to this crisis unless the Congolese president wants to lose the Kivu’s for good.”
This Rwandan official is very clear: he believes that the US has mis-hit the ball completely and that this has had an adverse effect on events in the region. He also tells us that Kinshasa is militarily finished. The resulting humanitarian disaster is therefore also mainly their fault. Finally, he confronts Tshisekedi with the comment that if he wants to hold on to the Kivu’s he’ll will have to negotiate on the terms of those who control the situation on the battlefield.
American nitpicking
The American State Department is running out of options and seems desperate to find a way out. They had that chance in the past, several times, but changing Kagame’s words and stirring up gossip in diplomatic circles shows clearly that they are not able to correctly read the real drivers of this conflict. This American nitpicking is in one way funny, but it is also also sad: it shows clearly that they are not up to the task any longer to steer things in this part of the world. The fact that other diplomats who arrived in Kigali a couple of days ago are looking up to their American colleague who claims that he is very well informed is a sign on the wall as well that they are missing the point too. The Congolese population is paying the price for this amateurism. Countries like Belgium and the US know the truth very well, but they do not want to jeopardize the flow of minerals out of the DRC. Putting Rwanda under pressure is therefore the easier option. But the level of comprehension in Kigali has reached its limits. To be followed…….
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns – Kivu Press Agency.