Interpretation of President Kagame’s inauguration speech when it comes to Congo
In his inauguration speech, the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, prioritized the entire region`s peace and security. The Rwandan leadership is fed up of the ongoing war in the DRC and wants to end it. Unfortunately, this is impossible without being listened to and under the blind terms of the Congolese President Tshisekedi., Kagame is looking for a way to solve this conflict in a peaceful way. To summarize that meeting, we can say that the accent was put on the neutralization of the FDLR, the Rwandan Hutu extremists who have now been absorbed by the Congolese army (FARDC). An agreement was signed to set up a joint control mechanism composed of Congolese, Angolan and Rwandan observers to observe the extraction of this FDLR out of the FARDC ranks, but no time frame was given to do this. The fact that the Congolese representative in Luanda had also signed this was another positive sign on the wall; it was a clear sign that Kinshasa is starting to understand that it has lost this war. Tshisekedi probably understands that his days as leader might be numbered if the M23 walks into Goma.
In his inauguration speech, President Kagame hailed both the Angolan and Kenyan presidents for their efforts to mediate in this conflict, but Kagame would not be able to call himself Kagame if he didn’t mention in this same speech that “peace cannot be obtained if the party that is most directly concerned does not do what is needed and that when it doesn’t happen people stand up and fight for it!” He also reacted on the accusations of the Americans and the Europeans that Rwanda is military present in the DRC for its own benefits and to loot minerals: “There is no longer room for the powerful to impose their vision how others ought to live.”
As far as we know, the M23 leadership was neither consulted before nor during the talks in Luanda. We’ll return to this later. We are not the only ones who believe that significant progress is being made towards resolving the conflict in the DRC. Over the course of two days, we spoke with observers, military commanders, and diplomats, and we'll share the most compelling insights we gathered.
Reaction
“Kagame’s speech can be interpreted as a well summarized and sharp reaction on the approach of the Americans who are starting to threaten Rwanda with sanctions if they do not pull out of the DRC,” tells us a high ranking and foreign military observer in Kinshasa. “This already worked a couple of times in the past, but it will probably not work well this time. Kagame made this clear in his speech. On the one hand he is showing the outside world that he is willing to talk to make peace but he’s also putting his conditions on the table well knowing that Tshisekedi is literally surrounded and that he’s running out of support. Kagame also knows that the Americans are not completely stupid and that much of the current problems could have been avoided if Kinshasa would have been willing to talk to the M23. Sanctions would hurt the development of Rwanda, of course. And Kagame wants to avoid this. We have reached the point that the cities of Goma and Bukavu have become ripe apples to pluck for the rebels. This would automatically trigger the total bankruptcy of Tshisekedi who is already having paranoiac nightmares that other political crocodiles such as Kabila want to take over his reign. The message of the Rwandans to Tshisekedi is clear: “You negotiate with us and with the M23 to extract the FDLR from Congo and to allow the peaceful return of all the refugees or you might lose your lucrative job.”
Conditions
A retired Rwandan ambassador who’s closely following up on all the events in the Kivus summarizes it as following: “This war is going on already for several years and its dark clouds are also hanging above Rwanda. The situation in the DRC is starting to obstruct the economic development of Rwanda. Rwanda didn’t send soldiers into the DRC to annex the Kivus and the country would be far better off with a normal neighbor business partner with which they would be able to trade in a normal way. The alliance between the “Alliance Fleuve Congo” might have worked well to counter the rumba politics of Kinshasa but the glue to stick their presence to the true cause of the Bagogwe who are fighting to return to their land and to end the racism towards the Tutsi community is of very poor quality. The Rwandans do not want to make the same mistake and that is probably also one of the reasons why they outed themselves to be military present in the DRC. That is why they decided to negotiate directly with Kinshasa. But Kagame put also his conditions on the table; you do it our way or you go the highway! I strongly believe that this time he will not bow for the unconditional order of the Americans to pull out of the DRC and to leave the M23 behind so that the organization will fall prey to infighting and un-mature leadership. A big part of the public opinion in Rwanda would not like this to happen. Kigali wants to go step by step: it first wants the FDLR to be completely neutralized before calling back its troops. If Kinshasa will become willing to negotiate the return of the refugees, the M23 will have to step in to make this possible. And Kinshasa will have to give solid guarantees that they will allow the M23 to let their civilians come back, settle in and pick up their lives again in their villages. This will happen with or without Tshisekedi. The possible fall of Goma might speed up this process. Rwanda does not want to balkanize the DRC and as we speak, I am strongly convinced that they are talking openly to the Americans to convince them that this is the only solution. Otherwise, the conflict in eastern Congo will never come to an end.”
Gisenyi
Gisenyi, the small border town in Rwanda, next to Goma, has become a safe haven for dozens of Congolese business guys and Tutsi’s who fled the pogrom in the DRC. Their sons and daughters are fighting on the front lines in the DRC. “I’m not a Tutsi,” says a Congolese businessman in one of the posh hotels in town. “But I’m telling you that most of the ‘Gomatraciens’ (people of Goma) are more than fed up with the current situation: the FDLR and the Wazalendo (local militia) are making life in Goma a living hell. They loot, kill and rape as they want. These FDLR and Wazalendo are being guided and funded by collaborators of the president. Many people tell us that they would like the RDF and the M23 to move inn to restore order. “The other people are nodding when he speaks. ” Thousands of Congolese are living and working in Rwanda and none of those is even bothered or harassed for being Congolese. Tshisekedi should talk to the M23. We also hear that they are already setting up their own administration in the zone they occupy and that life there is picking up. Hundreds of refugees in Goma want to return to their villages but the FDLR is threatening them.” “Kagame’s speech comforted us,” adds a Mugogwe elder who is also a lawyer. “It is also true that the political leadership of the M23 lacks experience; our kids know how to fight for our cause, but they lack the experience to represent themselves politically. They clearly will have to work on that. When Kagame declares that people have the right to stand up and fight against injustice, we also believe that he is taking on our behalf and that he will keep on defending us. Goma and Bukavu could be turned into safe places where people feel safe and where there will be enough room for respect and development.”
African leaders
Kagame’s inauguration ceremony was attended by more than 20 African leaders, but the Americans and the Europeans only sent smaller game diplomats. “This shows clearly the existing rift between most of the African countries and the so-called superpowers who are still considering Rwanda as the disobedient or difficult to understand pupil in the classroom in which they want to remain the only teacher,“ a foreign researcher is adding. “Rwanda is becoming an example for many of them. The South-African president was not present but most of the other SADC leaders were on post, the Tanzanians and the Ugandans as well. This shows clearly that Ramaphosa’s views and actions are not shared any longer by African leaders. Museveni sent his son who was accompanied by Museveni’s loudspeaker-influencer-journalist Andrew Mwenda. Mwenda was a fierce critic of Kigali in the past. The same can be said about the new president of Senegal who was very negative about Kagame in the past but who came to Kigali to congratulate him for his re-election.”
Trump
“It is highly unlikely that Tshisekedi will respect the ongoing peace talks in Luanda and in Nairobi, but Kagame is now willing to talk to him and allow him a way out of this deadlock in a respectful way, without losing his reputation,” an American consultant adds to all this. “For many outsiders, this might seem an easy task but before peace can be re-instated, a lot of mutual goodwill will be necessary. If not, the DRC might end up like Iraq where Kurdistan remains Iraqi territory but where the Kurds have their own military forces and representations. It’s also sad to say that the events in eastern Congo will also be influenced by the outcome of the elections in the US. If Kamala Harris wins the often-biased views of Human Rights Watch, people such as Jason Stearns might diabolize Rwanda even much harder than it is already the case now. If Donald Trump wins nobody knows what will happen as this guy is highly unpredictable. Kagame also told the audience that his focus will now be on the future. It is true that he was able to incredibly turn around the country's economy after the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis. It is my impression that Rwanda does not want problems with the US but the Americans must also understand that Africans have the right to take their own future into their hands”.
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency