Burundian radicals fighting alongside the FDLR, Ingabire Victoire’s blessing and insights into the balkanization of Congo
The war in the Kivu’s is prattling on: the FARDC coalition is re-enforcing its troops, the M23 is digging in even more and better. Everyone is expecting a big FARDC offensive on several fronts before the elections. One with more flair, more manpower, new weaponry (attack drones) and much better coordination. Everyone seems to be waiting for the EACRF to leave the theatre. But will they leave? Is SADC going to send troops to replace them? That’s another question that should be asked. Even when Kinshasa is claiming that the SADC will come to their aid, the latter might just send a couple of South-African to Goma for a couple of selfie-shots without getting engaged in the fighting. Add to that, the bigger crumbling and doubtful acts of MONUSCO that is now actively supporting a coalition of troops that consists for more than 50 precent of criminal gangs, genocide perpetrators and mercenaries of all kinds. Another question is whether the elections will take place at the end of the year: Moise Katumbi is becoming more popular, and a huge number of Congolese are getting convinced that Tshisekedi made a very big mess. Though he is trying to convert the election rules and laws into his favor, he might be whistled back on the 20th of December. In this big Congolese soap opera, several scenarios are possible. By the way: this is old news! There are a couple of new elements and facts that are becoming visible.
Burundi
Burundi has now showed its real face by sending its own mercenaries into the battle zone and this shatters the newly gained image of the Burundian president who was trying to polish up the shield of his country with peace proposals and deals. He agreed to host peace talks and to send troops to the DRC under the EAC banner. President Evariste Ndayishimiye’s fragile and questionable regained reputation as an ever-smiling peace lover and promoter were shattered in five seconds when his EACRF contingent went rogue on their colleagues from Kenya and Uganda. His commanders in Masisi lent Burundian uniforms top FARDC scouts to visit M23 positions in Kilolirwe and to provide logistical aid to the FDLR. But it didn’t stop there: the M23 captured several Burundian soldiers in FARDC uniforms and was able to kill many others on the battlefield. “The corrupt clique around Neva’s predecessor Nkurunziza and the current clique around himself sucked Burundi dry,” tells us a foreign observer. “Several foreign institutions and governments stopped their aid to the country and Neva had no other choice than to polish up his shield: with a big smile on his face, he engaged in peace talks, he started acting as a mediator between several hostile groups in the DRC, and he hosted peace talks himself in his capitol. This worked well for a while, but when Tshisekedi offered him another deal to send Burundian soldiers into the DRC to fight as mercenaries in exchange of thousands of dollars and lucrative mineral contraband deals, he slipped back into his old habits. Much to the embarrassment of the other EAC members who sent troops to the DRC. "
When the first body bags arrived back in Bujumbura, other recruits in the Burundian army started deserting: some of them were Tutsi’s who did not want to fight their M23 brothers, others simply didn’t want to die in a war for which their superiors were paid in coltan and gold and for which they only received peanuts. As we speak the Burundian government continues to send troops to reinforce the FARDC. The small amount of credit and trust they gained in Rwanda has vanished completely as well. For the Rwandan government, Neva’s actions have become a problem they’ll deal with later”.
“The involvement of Burundi in this conflict has sharpened the ethnical edges of this conflict,” continues another analyst. “Most of the officers in Neva’s army have a Hutu extremist past, others were members of the infamous Imbonerakure militia. And this bunch was trained and molded by Rwandan FDLR elements. Burundian Tutsi recruits do not want to go and fight in the DRC, some of them already deserted months ago to join the M23. The Burundian army can be seen now as a 70 percent Hutu outfit and their presence in Masisi boosts the morale of the FDLR and the Nyatura who are also Hutu’s. This re-enforces the narrative of those who are saying that the M23 is a Rwandan and therefore a Tutsi construction. People like Tshisekedi are comparing the M23 with an empty shell full of RDF soldiers who were sent to the DRC by Paul Kagame to balkanize the country and to steal all its minerals. This is not true. But under the umbrella of the FARDC the Burundian Hutu extremists and their Rwandan and Congolese counterparts can now openly operate together. This is a very dangerous evolution with possible geopolitical consequences.”
The revival of Hutu extremist thoughts and practices are very visible in the DRC. Historical facts and figures are being pulled out of their context by people who are using every available lie to justify their acts or to hide their own responsibility. Adolf Hitler managed to convince the whole German population that the Jewish community was responsible for the economic crisis in the country, the fact that Germany lost the first world war, etc. In the DRC, a tiny community of Tutsi’s is being held responsible for the whole corruption scheme of the government, the fact that there are more than 200 other armed militia’s, the fact that most of the minerals that can be found here leave the country on unorthodox ways.
Victoire Ingabire
Another event that struck us was the apparition of Victoire Ingabire in a discussion with a well-known wazalendo loudspeaker-leader on social media. ‘Wazalendo’ is the new name that was given to the coalition of negative forces such as the radical FDLR, the Nyatura and several violent Mayi Mayi groups with the FARDC to cover up their dubious past and reputation. Victoire Ingabire is a well-known Rwandan opposition figure who came back from Holland several years ago. Her political activities originate in the atmosphere and circles of Hutu extremists who fled Rwanda. She was one of the founders of the ‘Retour des Refugiés’, out of which the FDLR originated. She decided to come back to Rwanda to participate in the elections, but she was put behind bars for genocide denial. She spent a couple of years in jail and she was released on parole by a presidential order. Nowadays she spends most of her time at home, but she never stopped criticizing the government. She has always denied her direct contact with FDLR. But openly describing the wazalendo – of which the Radical FDLR are a part – is her latest ‘acte de guerre’. Just the day before she was interviewed by a British tv-station and she had said that the English court had taken the correct decision not to allow illegal immigrant to be send to Rwanda.
For us Ingabire is entitled to say whatever she wants; she has the right to say that she thinks that Rwanda is not a free country and that it is not safe to host refugees here. But by openly admitting that she admires the actions of the wazalendo, she is stepping on a very thin and slippery ice that might break easily under her feet. Or she might slip and fall straight on her face. The wazalendo construction was set up to cover the ongoing collaboration between the extremist FDLR and the FARDC. By expressing herself as a real supporter of this cause she’s now directly promoting those who are committing most of the crimes and the killings in the Kivu’s. It shows also clearly that she’s trying to surf and to promote herself on the waves and the actions of the Burundian, the Congolese, and the Rwandan Hutu extremists in the DRC and in Europe. The extremist Hutu lobby is not granted the possibility in Rwanda to return politically. Their dreams to return to Rwanda were shattered after the genocide, but they were revived when the FDLR started to receive new weapons, money, and other support to fight the M23. We found evidence that they are now even mobilizing youngsters to join the FDLR in Rwanda and while filming other stories about genocide convicts, we became aware of the fact that many Hutus in the Rwandan countryside are still hanging on to that ideology. For the FDLR, the wazalendo surfboard might be a perfect tool to glide back into Rwanda to instigate more hatred and revive their Hutu power ideology. An open conflict between Congo and Rwanda would play in the advantage of this strategy.
Victoire Ingabire is not stupid, and she must have thought twice before she congratulated the wazalendo for their actions. Outsiders might accuse us of being paranoid and exaggerating when we analyze Ingabire’s wazalendo intervention like this. But this raises questions, and the Rwandan authorities cannot allow this scenario to develop itself. Ingabire’s intervention is another sign for us that the still hidden geopolitical time bomb is ticking louder and louder. It is the first time in years that Ingabire is expressing herself so openly in favor of a close FDLR ally who is killing innocent people in the Kivu’s every day. The Hutu power lobby understands very well that their survival depends on all these events in Congo.
Symbolic force
By the end of this week or the beginning of next week, we will also know if Tshisekedi reached the end of his rope when it comes to foreign military aid. It is not sure yet if the EAC-forces will leave the country before the 8th of December and it is even less sure that SADC will deploy a division-strong force in North-Kivu. “Despite the Burundian fucked up the other EAC forces showed goodwill and they were able to calm down the situation remarkedly,” tells us a military observer. “But the government in Kinshasa kept on refusing negotiations with the M23”.
Both Kenya and Uganda do not want to leave a security gap behind, and they both know that the SADC will not be able to stop this war. So, they might already be looking for pretexts to stay put. It is also very likely that the SADC will only send a smaller symbolic force to the region. They might set up a couple of smaller but more high-tech operations against the M23, with the FARDC, but nobody believes that those will change the situation. They also know very well that the M23 might close the front door of this theatre of operations right in front of their noses by blocking the airports of Kavumu, Bukavu and Goma. And there are plenty of other factors at stake that might turn this project into a nightmare for the South-Africans.”
A foreign diplomat in Kinshasa describes this as follows: “Most of us still think that Kinshasa will launch an attack on several fronts very soon. But most of us also think that this will turn into another catastrophe for Tshisekedi & co. As the popularity of Moise Katumbi is growing by the day and Tshisekedi is losing more and more credit we might still see that the elections will be postponed. We therefore think that the SADC will not commit itself completely before being able to see clearly in this very foggy situation. They might also understand that this war might spread over the border with Rwanda and now also with Burundi. That’s another reason why Pretoria might not be willing to place the chart in front of the horse.”
Balkanization
The whole narrative in which Rwanda and the M23 are being accused of trying to balkanize the conflict is now becoming a kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that was launched by Kinshasa itself. In our previous article we have already explained how some people are now starting to believe their own lies after repeating them so many times. The current Rwandan government does not want to balkanize the DRC and the M23 just want to return to their villages in Nort-Kivu with their families who are now still living in refugee camps in Rwanda and in Uganda. They also want to be able to protect them once they reclaim their properties. Rwanda wants to neutralize the FDLR that has never been stronger and better equipped than it is today and that is now joined by Burundian Hutu radicals in Congolese army uniforms. Hutu opposition leaders in Europe, such as Faustin Twagiramungu, are openly supporting the Congolese government and the unwritten super star of Hutu ‘democracy’, Victoire Ingabire, is now congratulating those wazalendo openly on the social media. Ingabire is very popular in circles of European politicians who are accusing Rwanda to be a dictatorship but nearly none of those seems to know her real background. Just like the Interahamwe militia during the Rwandan genocide those wazalendo rape, kill and burn people.
The M23 stated last week during a press conference that they lost their faith in a possible peaceful solution and that they would have to grab this cow with its both horns, install their own administration and leadership into the region and organize the comeback of all the refugees. But before it can come to that a lot of water will flow through the Congo River. One thing is sure, though: they will not pull out of the positions they are occupying now. “By forcing us to take our faith into our own hands and to set up our own administration it will be very easy for Kinshasa to accuse use of balkanization,” tells us a high ranking M23 cadre. “But they are leaving us no other choice now. Tshisekedi is destroying his own country!”
Adeline Umutoni & Marc Hoogsteyns, Kivu Press Agency